recovery modeling

In the aftermath of previous moderate to large earthquakes (e.g. Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, and Christchurch 2011), nearby university campuses (e.g. Stanford, California State University, and University of Canterbury) have experienced widespread building damage, disruption of lecture and research, and reduction of undergraduate and graduate attendance. Other potential consequences of an earthquake could include life-safety issues and a loss of university reputation. While the value of ensuring campus-wide resilience in the face of earthquakes is apparent, the strategy to achieve measurable improved performance can be difficult to develop and quantify. This paper presents a methodology for estimating disruption and recovery of space on a university campus based on the REDi downtime assessment methodology (founded upon FEMA P-58). This is used to predict downtime for individual buildings due to building repairs and delays to the initiation of repairs (i.e. impeding factors). Hundreds of earthquake scenarios were considered to impact an example campus, and the related results are presented. Particular attention is paid to metrics of primary interest to university campuses, including restoration of different occupancy space over time and displacement of student populations.

Over the past decade, the earthquake engineering profession has made significant progress in developing models and tools for predicting loss of functionality and downtime in buildings, most notably the seismic performance assessment methodology for buildings (i.e., FEMA P-58) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. While FEMA P-58 represents an important step-changes in practice, its methodology for predicting downtime contains significant simplifications and assumptions that impact the accuracy of its results. Downtime is arguably the most difficult performance metric to estimate, but it is also one of the most important, providing insights into how long critical buildings might be rendered unusable, which in turn can be used to predict restoration times for business operations or important community services. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in predicting earthquake-induced downtime in buildings. It describes the REDi downtime assessment methodology, a sophisticated process for predicting downtime in individual buildings that builds on FEMA P-58, and summarizes several improvements that have been made to the methodology since its initial publication in 2013. It also discusses important remaining challenges in predicting downtime in buildings.

Earthquake-induced loss of functionality and downtime in individual buildings can cause major economic and societal impacts, ranging from displacement of individual families and businesses to disruption of emergency medical services and government functions. The ability to predict recovery times for buildings after an earthquake is a critical component in understanding and mitigating the seismic risks facing a community. The seismic performance assessment methodology proposed by FEMA P-58 created a framework that translated structural performance into metrics that would enable stakeholders to make risk-informed decisions. Upon that framework, the REDi downtime assessment methodology was created to convert repair times from a FEMA P-58 assessment into building downtime through realistic labor allocation, consideration of delays to initiation of repairs, and calculation of intermediate goals along the path to full recovery. Since its initial development in 2013, the REDi downtime assessment methodology has been implemented in several projects. From these project and research applications, further improvements have been made to the previously published methodology. These improvements, key takeaways, and remaining challenges are discussed.